Discussion:
China's False Sense of An Orderly "Managed Market Economy"
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Her Lao
2016-01-04 12:05:47 UTC
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Where the Wise Communist Party --- and its "correct leadership" --- gently and wisely guide how an orderly run, communist-based "market economy" is supposed to work!

"Don't panic!"


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-stocks-start-2016-weak-note-middle-east-030248559--finance.html

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13407258/1/china-faces-2016-crisis-as-bad-as-u-s-mortgage-meltdown.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

On the Russian-Putin front: not sure how my hero, Donald "the Orangutan" J Trump's friend Mr. Putin's gonna handle the steady and seemingly irrevocable decline of the Russian Ruble...

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/usdrub

Back in 2012-13, if you had about 30 Rubles, that's ONE DOLLAR... today, 2016, you have to have close to 75 Rubles for ONE DOLLAR in exchange... that must hurt! Especially if your leader, Mr. Putin's federal budget used to get a huge chunk from crude oil that used to sell $110 to as high as $125 or so per barrel but is now only fetching $35 to $40 per barrel...

No wonder Mr. Putin came out and say the USA and its pals, the Saudis, are the greatest threats to world peace!

Mr. Putin didn't want to tell us that Saudi Arabia's budget is more or less 100% oil-revenue-based, so when oil makes that kind of precipitous drop, Saudi Arabia hurts more than Russia...
Her Lao
2016-01-07 03:04:08 UTC
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-07/chinese-stocks-trigger-trading-halt-after-csi-300-declines-5-

A second trading day within a week where the stock exchange's "automatic circuit breaker" had to be deployed after "normal trading" activities cause a 7% loss.

That means the Chinese Communist authorities thought if they didn't do the forced-exchange stoppage, the losses could go further up to 10 or more percentage losses... and for a one-day trading, THAT would be a tsunami, especially if there are such two events within one week...
Her Lao
2016-01-09 02:57:08 UTC
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http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/08/investing/stocks-markets-dow-china-oil/index.html

The Dow lost 1,079 points this week, or over 6%, as fears about China and crashing oil prices dealt Wall Street a painful one-two blow. It was the Dow's worst five-day start to a year on record, according to Dow Jones.
Her Lao
2016-01-09 08:54:33 UTC
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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-leaders-losing-155349539.html

Charlene Chu at Autonomous Research is widely regarded as the "rock star" of China research.

Money managers the world over pay tens of thousands of dollars for access to her research. Her reports are rarely leaked; she rarely gives interviews.

But Business Insider managed to wangle a copy of her 46-page China roadmap report, out January 4.

It has a bunch of fascinating insights, but one chart (below) really jumped out. It sums up the deteriorating level of confidence investors have in Chinese policymakers.

The portion with very low confidence or low confidence jumped from July to December. Just 6.1% now have confidence or high confidence, versus about 23% in July.

It is worth bearing in mind that this survey was carried out in December, before the most recent circuit-breaker snafu.

Ultimately, investors in China are buying the Chinese leadership at this point. The country is trying to manage a transition in the economy, a devaluating yuan, and a volatile stock market, all at once.

And if China's leaders are losing the confidence of foreign investors, one can assume things are going to get worse before they get better.

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-going-back-time-170906907.html

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-hockett-/china-debt-meltdown-_b_8940382.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592
Her Lao
2016-01-09 08:57:25 UTC
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On Saturday, January 9, 2016 at 2:54:34 AM UTC-6, Her Lao wrote:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-leaders-losing-155349539.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-going-back-time-170906907.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-hockett-/china-debt-meltdown-_b_8940382.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-08/china-finds-3-trillion-just-doesn-t-pack-the-punch-it-used-to?cmpid=yhoo.headline
Her Lao
2016-01-26 19:12:26 UTC
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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/27/business/international/china-economy-data-statistics-inquiry.html?_r=0


What happens, if people in charge of your national statistical bureaus and cabinet and/or ministerial of the various kinds in charge of your economic activities REPORTED DOCTORED statistics --- very positive, glowing, high numbers on growth and inventions and patents and transactions of the various kinds --- because they wanted YOU, the ONE AND ONLY ALLOWED POLITICAL PARTY in charge, to be happy?

And it turned out, when careful analysis by more neutral observers and scientists and statisticians is done, the picture was not as rosy pink as originally reported?

Do you punish yourself, as the only allowed leaders? Or do you put NEW and "better" researchers and scientists and economists in those positions?

And how could you trust them, since they must make you happy, and reporting accurate numbers MAY NOT MAKE YOU HAPPY, since you could punish them anyway you want, since you and your POLITICS determine what is law, what is not, what is legal and what is not, who is allowed to think in the legal way and who is not, etc?
Her Lao
2016-01-26 19:34:01 UTC
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-26/china-s-stocks-fall-amid-concern-capital-outflows-may-accelerate
Her Lao
2016-01-30 01:14:02 UTC
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-29/china-stumbles-in-race-to-pass-u-s-as-world-s-biggest-economy

For the first time in almost a decade, China has lost ground in catching up with the U.S. economy, when output is measured in dollars.

U.S. gross domestic product increased $590 billion in 2015 from a year earlier, according to data released Friday. China's economy, while reporting 6.9 percent growth for the year, added $439 billion, as a weaker yuan sapped the value of output gains in dollar terms, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.


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Keep in mind: the US only has a population of around 330 million people.

China, on the other hand, has roughly 1 Billion and 350 million citizens...
Her Lao
2016-02-01 16:48:34 UTC
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https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/china-company-accused-fleecing-investors-7-6-billion-051418261.html
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